Food Security in a Changing Climate: Here's Why It's Critical

Q: Which regions are most affected by the impacts of climate change on food security?

Most at risk from crop failures and hunger are in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. These areas have many farming families who are poor and vulnerable.

By June 2022, the number of people facing severe food shortages jumped from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million across 82 countries. This increase was due to the Ukraine war, supply chain issues, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic’s economic effects. These factors pushed food prices to record highs¹. This shows how vital it is to focus on food security as our climate changes.

Contents

Climate change is making food insecurity worse. It changes weather patterns, leading to more heat waves, heavy rains, and droughts¹. The way we produce and distribute food also plays a big role, emitting about a third of greenhouse gases, second only to energy production¹.

Key Takeaways

The number of people experiencing acute food insecurity has risen dramatically, from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million in 2022.
Climate change is a major driver of global food insecurity, with its impacts on weather patterns and crop yields.
The global food system is a significant contributor to climate change, responsible for about a third of greenhouse gas emissions.
Addressing food security in the face of a changing climate is critical to ensuring access to nutritious food for all.
Sustainable and climate-smart agricultural practices can help build resilience and mitigate the food system’s environmental impact.

The State of Global Food Security and the Role of Climate Change

The world is facing a growing food security crisis. The number of people facing food insecurity has jumped from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million in 82 countries by June 2022². This increase is due to the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues, and the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic effects, all making food prices soar³.

Climate change is the main cause of this food security issue. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are hurting farming in many areas². The food system is a big source of greenhouse gases, second only to energy, and is leading to methane and biodiversity loss².

Climate Change as a Major Driver of Food Insecurity

Global warming is changing weather patterns, causing heat waves and droughts that hurt food production². These changes lead to less food and lower incomes in poor areas, making food hard to get². With the world’s population set to grow by one-third by 2050, especially in developing countries, food demand will keep rising².

The Global Food System’s Contribution to Climate Change

The food system is a big source of greenhouse gases and harming the environment, making food security harder². Farms need to use resources better, produce more, and be able to handle climate changes without harming nature². They also need to cut down on greenhouse gases and help absorb more carbon dioxide to fight climate change².

To solve the problems of food security and climate change, we need a wide-ranging plan². This plan should include new farming methods, better resource use, and specific policies². By addressing these issues, we can work towards a future that is more resilient and fair for everyone².

Regions Most Affected by Climate Impacts on Food Security

Climate change is making food security worse worldwide. Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia are hit the hardest. About 80% of people at risk from crop failures and hunger live in these. They are poor and easily affected by environmental changes.

In South Sudan, 64% of people, or 7.7 million out of 12 million, face severe hunger⁴. Madagascar struggles with nearly 2 million people facing severe hunger due to cyclones, droughts, and floods⁴. Pakistan has seen a huge increase in severe hunger since the 2022 floods, now affecting 14.6 million people⁴.

Region	Impact on Food Security
Sub-Saharan Africa	5 million people in Somalia facing crisis levels of hunger due to consecutive failed rainy seasons⁴ 15 million people in Sudan severely hungry, with over 4 million children and mothers acutely malnourished⁴ Over 2.1 million people in Chad left acutely hungry after the 2022 lean season due to floods⁴
South Asia	Extreme weather events and conflict driving nearly 30 million people from their homes annually⁵ Agricultural productivity in Africa has declined by 34% due to climate change, more than in any other region⁵
Southeast Asia	Recurrent La Niña conditions since late 2020 causing crop and livestock losses in Central America and the Caribbean⁵ Expected above-average rainfall in parts of Guatemala and Honduras increasing the chances of flooding in low-lying areas⁵

These numbers show how climate change is severely affecting food security in vulnerable areas. We need quick action to help these communities deal with climate change’s effects⁵.

“Climate change is not just an environmental issue, but a profound threat to global food security and the livelihoods of millions of people, especially in the developing world.”

Climate Change’s Future Impact on Agriculture and Food Security

The global climate is getting warmer, and this is a big worry for agriculture and food security. At first, warmer temperatures and more CO2 might help crops grow. But, climate change’s bad effects could really hurt farming and food supply worldwide⁶.

Potential Crop Yield Declines in Vulnerable Regions

In many parts of the world already short on water, climate change will make things worse. It will reduce water, bring more extreme weather, and spread pests and diseases⁶. This could greatly lower crop yields, especially in areas already struggling with hunger⁷.

In the U.S., farming and food add over $750 billion to the economy yearly⁶. But, extreme weather has already cut crop yields in some years, even with new tech helping corn yields⁶.

Increased Poverty and Hunger in Food-Insecure Areas

Lower crop yields mean more poverty and hunger in already struggling areas. In Africa, 43 million people could fall into poverty by 2030 due to climate change’s effects on farming and food⁷.

Maize is a key food in Africa and Central America, with nearly 950 million metric tonnes eaten every year⁷. Wheat gives over 20% of the world’s calories and protein, with nearly 700 million metric tonnes eaten yearly⁷. Climate change could really hurt the production of these important crops, affecting food security and nutrition in these areas.

“To meet the food demand for the predicted 9.6 billion population by 2050, food production must increase by at least 60%, and potentially up to 100%, according to different projections.”⁷

We need to tackle the issue of lower crop yields and its effects on poverty and hunger. This will be key in the next decades as we face climate change’s impact on farming and food security.

Adaptation Strategies for Climate-Resilient Agriculture

The world faces big challenges with climate change. Agriculture’s role in adapting is key. Farmers and policymakers are finding new ways to make farms more climate-resilient. They aim to make farms strong against a changing climate.

Improving Water Efficiency and Management

One big strategy is to make farming use water better. Water scarcity is a big worry. Using methods like drip irrigation and precision farming can cut down on water use⁸. These methods help farmers use water wisely and keep farming sustainable during climate change.

Switching to Less Water-Intensive Crops

Choosing the right crops is also key. Farmers are picking less water-intensive crops that do well in dry or water-short areas⁹. This change helps make farms more resilient and keeps food safe in areas hit hard by droughts and water shortages.

Enhancing Soil Health with Sustainable Practices

Healthy soil is vital for farming. Using sustainable practices like no-till farming and cover cropping makes soil better⁸⁹¹⁰. These methods not only help crops grow better but also fight climate change by cutting down on greenhouse gases and making farms more resilient.

climate-resilient agriculture

By using these strategies, farmers and policymakers can make farming more climate-resilient. Sustainable intensification and new tech are key to keeping food safe during the climate crisis.

Food Security

Food security is a big issue linked to climate change. As more people live on Earth, getting enough nutritious food for everyone is harder¹¹.

In 2022, many households struggled with food security. They worried about running out of food and couldn’t afford balanced meals. Adults even skipped meals or ate less because they didn’t have enough money¹¹. This shows we need to act fast to solve food security problems caused by climate change.

The World Bank Group has put a lot of money into agriculture, giving $9.6 billion in new funding in 2022¹². The Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP) helped over 13 million small farmers and their families with more than $1.3 billion in grants to 64 projects in 39 countries¹².

The World Bank-supported CGIAR is leading in improving agricultural science and innovation for better food and nutrition security¹². These efforts are vital because climate change can harm food production and distribution worldwide.

Even though we’ve made progress, there’s a lot more to do for food security. By focusing on sustainable and climate-resilient farming, investing in research, and helping vulnerable communities, we can aim for a future where everyone has enough food, even with climate change.

The World Bank’s Support for Climate-Smart Agriculture

The World Bank Group’s Climate Change Action Plan (2021-2025) is boosting support for climate-smart agriculture. It focuses on policy and technology to make farming better, more resilient, and cut down on greenhouse gases¹³. The Bank also helps countries fight food waste and manage flood and drought risks¹³.

In Niger, a project aims to help 500,000 farmers and herders in 44 areas. It will give them better seeds, more efficient irrigation, and teach them about forestry and conservation farming¹³. The World Bank also gave a $30 million loan for a project in the Kyrgyz Republic. This was joined by a $5 million grant from the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP), making it $35 million total¹⁴.

This project in the Kyrgyz Republic will help 8,000 farmers directly and another 20,000 indirectly¹⁴. The World Bank has 25 projects in the Kyrgyz Republic, with over $1.1 billion in commitments¹⁴.

The World Bank is also working on Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plans (CSAIPs) for countries like Côte d’Ivoire. These plans aim to improve food and financial security for over 2.2 million small farmers¹⁵. The Bank has released nine CSAIPs and is preparing four more¹⁵.

These efforts show the World Bank’s dedication to climate-smart agriculture and adapting to climate change. With its money and know-how, the Bank is key to improving food security and resilience in a changing climate¹³.

Climate Change’s Impact on Food Availability

Climate change is a big threat to our food supply. Rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns are affecting crops, livestock, and fisheries¹⁶.

By 2050, the world might need 59 to 98 percent more food. This will put a huge strain on our food systems¹⁶. Crops like vegetables and legumes could lose up to 35 percent of their yield by 2100 due to water issues and pollution¹⁶. In the U.S., corn production could drop by half if global temperatures rise by 4°C by 2100¹⁶.

Severe droughts are already hurting crop yields. During these dry times, rice yields can fall by 17 to 40 percent¹⁶. With more frequent and intense droughts, the chance of big crop failures in major corn-exporting countries could hit 86 percent¹⁶.

Livestock are also facing challenges from climate change. Heat waves can make them less fertile and more prone to illness¹⁶. Also, the nutritional value of crops could drop as CO2 levels go up¹⁶.

Climate change is also affecting the oceans and fisheries. The ocean is warmer now than it has been since records started in 1880. This has made fish move their homes an average of 119 miles north since the 1960s¹⁶⁶.

These changes will have big effects on communities already struggling with food security¹⁷. We need to tackle climate change to keep our food supply safe for the future.

Impacts of Climate Change on Food Availability	Projected Changes	Supporting Data
Global food demand	Increase by 59-98% by 2050	¹⁶
Vegetable and legume yields	Decrease by 35% by 2100	¹⁶
U.S. corn production	Cut in half with a 4°C increase in global temperatures by 2100	¹⁶
Odds of simultaneous crop failures	Increase to 86% for top 4 corn exporters	¹⁶
Rainfed rice yields during droughts	Decrease by 17-40%	¹⁶
Livestock fertility and vulnerability to disease	Decrease as heat waves become more frequent	¹⁶
Crop protein content	Decrease significantly with elevated CO2 levels	¹⁶
Fish species range shifts	Average of 119 miles northward since the late 1960s	¹⁶⁶

Climate change is making it harder to get enough food. It’s affecting crops, fish, and livestock in big ways¹⁷.

The Role of Changing Diets in Addressing Climate Change

Climate change is a big challenge, and our diets play a key role in fighting it. The way we produce and consume food is a big source of greenhouse gas emissions, making up about a third of all emissions¹⁸. Most of these emissions come from farming and using land for food, especially from eating animal products like meat and dairy¹⁸.

On the other hand, eating more plants like fruits, veggies, and grains can help reduce these emissions¹⁸. This shows how changing our diets to be more plant-based can fight climate change. Studies suggest that such changes could cut down greenhouse gas emissions a lot¹⁸.

Changing our diets can also help make sure everyone has enough food. Every year, nearly 1 billion tons of food go to waste, which is 17% of all food we have¹⁸. This waste is bad for the environment, adding to greenhouse gas emissions¹⁸. We need to work on reducing food waste to help our food system be more sustainable.

By eating more plants and farming better, we can lower the emissions from food production¹⁸. This makes our food system stronger and more able to handle climate change¹⁹.

Dietary Shift	Potential Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Switching to plant-based diets	Significant reduction in emissions¹⁸
Improved feeding techniques, smaller herd sizes, and sustainable agricultural practices	Reduction in food sector emissions¹⁸
Reducing food waste	Decrease in emissions from food waste¹⁸

We all have the power to change our food system for the better. By choosing to eat more plant-based foods and supporting sustainable farming, we can help fight climate change. This way, we can ensure a secure and sustainable food future for everyone¹⁹.

Climate Change’s Impact on Pastoralism

Pastoralism, a way of life for centuries, is facing big challenges because of climate change. It covers about 100 countries, not including Antarctica, and pastoralist communities live on 25% of the world’s land, mainly in dry areas²⁰. These systems help around 200 million households worldwide and add 10 to 44% to Africa‘s economy²⁰.

The climate crisis is making it harder for pastoralism to survive. Vulnerability to climate change is high in areas where pastoralism is key, especially in Africa’s drylands. Every degree of warming makes water scarce²¹. Rising temperatures are causing land to turn into desert, which harms food security²¹.

Bad consumption habits are turning grasslands into other uses, making life harder for pastoralists²¹. With the world’s population set to hit 9.7 billion by 2050, the need for milk and meat will go up by about 60%. This will put more pressure on pastoral systems²⁰.

Indicator	Value
Pastoralism’s Contribution to GDP in Africa	10 to 44%
Estimated Number of Pastoralists in Africa	268 million
Drylands Occupied by Rangelands	75% of the world’s total
Carbon Stored in Rangelands	One-third of the world’s total
Biodiversity Hosted in Rangelands	One-third of Earth’s total

There are efforts to help pastoralist communities get stronger. Groups like the SPARC program are helping pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and farmers in Africa and the Middle East²¹. Researchers like Polly Ericksen and Mairi Dupar are also offering advice on how to adapt to climate change²¹.

As climate change gets worse, we need to see how important pastoralism is for food and nature. We must invest in green practices and support pastoralist communities for a secure future²⁰²¹²².

Vulnerability of Fruit and Vegetable Production

Climate change is making fruit and vegetable production more vulnerable. These foods are crucial for a healthy diet but are facing threats to their yield and quality. This could harm global food security²³.

Research shows that taste, cost, and how easy they are to buy affect how much fruit and vegetables people eat. For those who have enough food, taste and cost can stop them from eating healthy. But for those who don’t have enough food, these issues don’t matter as much²³. This highlights the need for special help for different groups of people.

Climate change is a big threat to growing fruits and vegetables. It could lead to a 3.2 percent drop in the world’s food supply per person by 2050²⁴. This is due to changes in the weather, extreme weather events, and problems like diseases and conflicts affecting food production²⁴. Such a drop could lead to over 500,000 deaths worldwide²⁴.

To protect fruit and vegetable production, we need to take many steps. Improving how we use water, choosing crops that need less water, and making soil healthy can help²⁵. Also, investing in new farming methods and crops that can handle climate change is key to keeping these foods safe.

By focusing on making fruit and vegetable production more resilient, we can keep these foods affordable and accessible. This will help communities worldwide stay healthy and secure²⁵.

Gender, Equity, and Food Security in a Changing Climate

The climate crisis is making food security a big worry worldwide. But, women are facing more challenges than men²⁶. They often get less food than men everywhere, and this problem is getting worse²⁶. By 2021, there could be 150 million more women struggling with food security, which is as many as live in Ukraine²⁶²⁷.

Gender gaps in food security come from deep social and cultural beliefs²⁷. Women do a lot of unpaid work at home, which stops them from earning money to feed their families²⁷. In many places, men are seen as the family leaders, which limits women’s access to resources and their say in decisions²⁷.

Climate change makes these gender gaps worse by affecting the water, land, and food we need²⁸. Women in poor areas have to walk further to get water and firewood²⁸. They also don’t have secure land or access to ways to adapt to climate change, which makes it hard for them to cope²⁸.

We need a plan that helps women to adapt to climate change and ensures everyone has enough food²⁸. Leaders and those working on development should focus on empowering women, giving everyone equal access to resources, and making sure gender is considered in climate-friendly farming and food systems²⁸. This way, we can make sure everyone has food security, even as the climate changes fast.

“Securing food and nutrition for all, in a changing climate, requires a deep understanding of the gendered dimensions of vulnerability and resilience.”

Optimizing and Scaling Up Food System Adaptation Practices

The global food system is facing big challenges from climate change. It’s key to improve and grow sustainable ways to adapt. This is vital for keeping food safe for everyone in the future²⁹. Right now, one in ten people get sick from bad food, showing we need better food safety²⁹. New tech like blockchain and AI is helping make food safer and better²⁹.

More people are moving towards farming that can handle climate change. There’s $2.5 billion in plans to help with this, including helping countries hit hard by climate change²⁹. The private sector is key in making food better for everyone, working with governments and NGOs to spread good farming practices worldwide²⁹.

In the U.S., farming has gotten better at making food staples, but we’re using less land for it³⁰. Yet, we’re losing farmland and gaining forest land. This shows we need to use our land and farming ways better for the future³⁰.

The Biden-Harris Administration wants the U.S. agriculture to be the first to be carbon neutral. They aim to save 30% of U.S. lands and waters by 2030 through voluntary efforts³⁰. These plans, along with investments in nutrition programs and a new Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategy, show a strong commitment to a better food system³⁰.

By using more climate-smart farming, making food safer, and using new tech, we can make the food system stronger and more adaptable to climate change²⁹³⁰. With support from both the public and private sectors, and through policies, we can work towards a food-secure future that’s good for everyone²⁹³⁰.

GHG Emissions from the Global Food System

The global food system is a big part of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making climate change worse. It’s thought that the food system is behind one-quarter to one-third of all GHG emissions. In 2015, food systems caused 34% of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions³¹.

Emissions from Agricultural Production

Agriculture and land use changes are the main causes of food emissions, making up 71% of them in 2015³¹. Livestock, like meat and milk, is the biggest part of these emissions, at 60%³². If we improve how we produce food, we could cut emissions by 21.4 to -2.0 GtCO2e/y³².

Emissions from Supply Chain Activities

Stages after farming also add to GHG emissions³¹. In Europe and the US, retail emissions went up 3-4 times from 1990 to 2015. In 2015, 29% of emissions came from transport, packaging, retail, processing, consumption, and disposal³¹. Packaging and transport each added 5.4% and 4.8% to emissions, respectively.

Emission Source	Percentage of Total Food System Emissions
Agriculture and LULUC	³¹71%
Livestock Production	³²60%
Other Supply Chain Activities	³¹29%
Packaging	³¹5.4%
Transportation	³¹4.8%

The global food systems emitted about 20 GtCO2e/y, which is 35% of all greenhouse gas emissions. If we use low-emission practices, we could cut emissions by 9.1–13.2 GtCO2e/y in 2050³².

“Differences in estimating deforestation and attributing emissions from land use change are among the biggest sources of discrepancies in estimating greenhouse gas emissions from the global food system.”

Supply-Side Practices for Climate Change Mitigation

The global food system faces big challenges from climate change. Exploring supply-side practices is key to fighting its effects³³. Agriculture, forestry, and land use release 20-25% of global greenhouse gases³³. We need a wide-ranging approach to tackle this, covering the whole food chain.

Planting trees, or afforestation, is a strategy to fight climate change³³. But, it could increase hunger by 2050, affecting 41.9 million people³³. We must balance climate efforts with food security.

Bioenergy production is another way to fight climate change³³. But, it must not harm food security or cause deforestation or soil damage.

To truly fight climate change, agriculture needs to change³⁴. This means using precision farming, better manure management, and practices like cover cropping and no-till farming.

Mitigation Measure	Emissions Reduction Potential
Reducing emissions in the industry sector	41%³⁵
Reducing emissions in the food sector	41%³⁵
Reducing emissions in the land transport sector	62%³⁵
Reducing emissions in the buildings sector	78%³⁵

By using various supply-side practices, the agriculture and food system can help fight climate change and ensure food for everyone³⁴. Sustainable practices, technology, and innovation are crucial for this balance.

Conclusion

The link between food security and climate change is complex and needs a big, team effort. We’ve seen how climate change affects food security worldwide³⁶³⁷. It’s clear we must act fast to keep our food safe and secure for the future.

Reducing food waste and loss³⁶³⁸, improving how we store and trade food, can make food more secure. Also, using water wisely, growing crops that need less water, and keeping soil healthy³⁶ can lessen climate change’s harm on farming. It’s also key to cut down on how the food system harms the climate³⁶³⁸.

We all need to work together to fix this big problem. Governments, companies, communities, and people must join forces. By using a Food Systems Approach³⁶, we can make sure everyone gets enough good food. We can also lessen climate change’s effects and keep our planet healthy for the future.

FAQ

What is the current state of global food security and how is climate change affecting it?

By June 2022, 345 million people in 82 countries faced acute food insecurity, up from 135 million in 2019. This rise is due to the Ukraine war, supply chain issues, and COVID-19’s economic effects. Climate change, like global warming, has also played a big role. It causes heat waves, heavy rains, and droughts, making food security worse.

Which regions are most affected by the impacts of climate change on food security?

Most at risk from crop failures and hunger are in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. These areas have many farming families who are poor and vulnerable.

How is climate change expected to impact agriculture and food security in the future?

Climate change could make crop yields drop, especially in the poorest food-insecure areas. This could push 43 million people in Africa below the poverty line by 2030 if we don’t find solutions.

What are some key strategies for adapting agriculture to climate change and building resilience?

Important strategies include using water wisely and managing its demand with policies. Switching to crops that need less water, like from rice to maize, also helps. Plus, improving soil health with more organic carbon helps it hold water and nutrients better, reducing the need for chemical fertilizers.

How is the World Bank supporting climate-smart agriculture and food security?

The World Bank Group has a Climate Change Action Plan (2021-2025) to support climate-smart agriculture. It focuses on improving productivity, resilience, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Bank also works on reducing food loss and waste and managing flood and drought risks.